Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 19.681659 22.426828 25.384931 28.805543 32.648016 36.827029 41.712249
2024-12-29 15.670347 19.402012 23.732396 29.113145 35.603066 43.160715 52.610457
2025-01-05 13.912585 18.157974 23.320355 30.029946 38.487111 48.757454 62.135702
2025-01-12 12.045148 16.488400 22.123793 29.748852 39.743527 52.338569 69.344913
2025-01-19 10.135624 14.483469 20.210250 28.242115 39.141674 53.332274 73.105807
2025-01-26 9.356277 13.879684 20.036434 28.943178 41.395565 58.065891 81.925150
2025-02-02 8.721742 13.391767 19.942285 29.690699 43.693856 62.918614 91.105714
2025-02-09 7.907405 12.553302 19.262149 29.521595 44.645717 65.914122 97.820166
2025-02-16 7.138787 11.701673 18.476365 29.108517 45.172019 68.279672 103.700418
2025-02-23 6.609227 11.161688 18.097801 29.247631 46.479330 71.789349 111.359535
2025-03-02 6.187579 10.749402 17.871662 29.582491 48.070243 75.759539 119.853878
2025-03-09 5.755614 10.278830 17.510751 29.665510 49.252588 79.144241 127.595020
2025-03-16 5.281262 9.706133 16.957309 29.423532 49.941925 81.863501 134.548767
2025-03-23 4.950036 9.348544 16.726685 29.685138 51.442123 85.906936 143.759427
2025-03-30 4.775925 9.248013 16.911559 30.636319 54.100567 91.883039 156.281789
2025-04-06 4.404490 8.758505 16.390723 30.344142 54.658513 94.488957 163.475461
2025-04-13 3.874260 7.927338 15.206693 28.811343 53.004030 93.364983 164.466539
2025-04-20 3.730053 7.812905 15.292661 29.524821 55.253796 98.816463 176.616901
2025-04-27 3.602207 7.718266 15.405028 30.286418 57.619002 104.557611 189.494665
2025-05-04 3.358939 7.373433 15.025371 30.114109 58.296684 107.425162 197.562934
2025-05-11 3.105164 6.984665 14.532776 29.693391 58.489121 109.441041 204.218731
2025-05-18 2.938878 6.762296 14.344439 29.835079 59.716444 113.320324 214.298249
2025-05-25 2.806969 6.601071 14.263802 30.176152 61.327201 117.943451 225.882482